Meteorologists are warning that a new period of intense rainfall is expected to impact Spain’s eastern coast between Wednesday and Monday, with models consistently highlighting areas between Valencia and Alicante, as well as the nearby Balearic Islands of Ibiza and Formentera. Forecast data from the UK Met Office (UKMO) indicates that some locations could accumulate more than 250 millimetres of rain during this period. The same regions were recently struck by flash flooding linked to the remnants of ex-Hurricane Gabrielle, raising concerns that the saturated ground and swollen rivers could worsen the impacts of this new event.
The meteorological setup driving this pattern is typical of the autumn “gota fría” episodes often seen in the Mediterranean region. These events occur when a cut-off low, or DANA (Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos), detaches from the jet stream and becomes quasi-stationary over the western Mediterranean. This upper-level system draws in warm, moisture-rich air from the sea, which collides with cooler air aloft, creating strong instability and producing torrential downpours. When these storms repeatedly develop over the same area, rainfall totals can climb dramatically in a short time, leading to flash floods.
Recent model guidance suggests that this scenario may unfold again in the coming days. The combination of a slow-moving upper low, deep Mediterranean moisture, and local orographic uplift along the coastal mountain ranges of Valencia and Alicante could result in several rounds of heavy thunderstorms. In some areas, the storms may remain nearly stationary, allowing rainfall to accumulate hour after hour. Over the six-day period, total accumulations above 200–250 mm are plausible, with isolated peaks possibly exceeding 300 mm where the heaviest convection persists. The islands of Ibiza and Formentera are also in the firing line, with model runs showing strong signals for localized flooding.
This pattern is especially concerning because the recent remnants of ex-Gabrielle already brought damaging rainfall to the same region. The soils are saturated, drainage systems are still recovering, and rivers remain sensitive to additional inflow. Even moderate rainfall could therefore produce renewed flooding, while heavier totals may lead to dangerous flash floods, mudslides, and infrastructure damage. Local authorities are urging residents to remain cautious and to follow updates from AEMET, Spain’s national weather agency, as red and orange alerts may be issued if model trends persist.
The meteorological ingredients behind this event are well understood but notoriously difficult to predict precisely. Small changes in the low’s position or speed could dramatically alter where the heaviest rain falls. If the cut-off low drifts slightly east, the Balearic Islands could take the brunt; if it lingers westward, the coastal strip between Valencia and Alicante would likely see the most extreme rainfall. In either case, the slow motion of the system means long-lasting showers and thunderstorms, particularly from Sunday night into Monday, when several models suggest the worst conditions may peak.
Residents and visitors in the affected areas are being advised to prepare for potential flooding, secure outdoor items, and avoid driving through waterlogged roads. Emergency services are on standby after the difficulties caused by the last storm, and local councils have been inspecting drainage channels and riverbanks in anticipation of further heavy rain. The Balearic authorities are also monitoring the situation closely, as ferry routes, flights, and coastal infrastructure could be disrupted by severe weather and rough seas.
Although forecast uncertainty remains, the consensus among major weather models points toward a high-impact rainfall event for the eastern Spanish coast and the nearby islands. With the atmosphere primed by residual moisture and unstable dynamics, the coming days could bring some of the heaviest rainfall so far this autumn. If totals near the upper end of forecasts—around 250 mm or more—materialize, serious flooding could again affect communities that have yet to fully recover from the previous storm. Continuous monitoring and preparedness will be crucial as this potentially dangerous episode unfolds.
